Sberbank Names First-Year Crypto Turnover Forecast for Russia Regulated Market
Anatoly Popov, Sberbank deputy chairman, states analyst expectations of 3.5-4 trillion rubles in regulated crypto exchange turnover for year one under the new Bank of Russia framework.
What is new
Anatoly Popov, Sberbank deputy chairman, is now the named source for the volume forecast on Russia's regulated crypto market.
Anatoly Popov, Sberbank deputy chairman, stated that the bank's analysts expect 3.5-4 trillion rubles, about $46 billion, in regulated exchange turnover during the first year of Russia's new crypto market.
The same forecast projects growth to roughly 7.5 trillion rubles, or about $87 billion, by 2029.
Market Rules
Russia's crypto law takes effect on 1 September 2026 under Bank of Russia supervision. Bitcoin, Ether, and USDT are approved for trading on licensed platforms.
Non-qualified retail investors must pass a knowledge test and then face a 300,000-ruble annual cap per intermediary.
Uncertainties
The volume range is a commercial estimate from Sberbank analysts. No figures have been disclosed on expected migration from unregulated venues, the effect of the retail cap, or custody and liquidity constraints under sanctions.